Outlier detection in spatial error models using modified thresholding-based iterative procedure for outlier detection approach.

BACKGROUND: Outliers, data points that significantly deviate from the norm, can have a substantial impact on statistical inference and provide valuable insights in data analysis. Multiple methods have been developed for outlier detection, however, almost all available approaches fail to consider the spatial dependence and heterogeneity in spatial data. Spatial data has diverse formats and semantics, requiring specialized outlier detection methodology to handle these unique properties. For now, there is limited research exists on robust spatial outlier detection methods designed specifically under the spatial error model (SEM) structure. METHOD: We propose the Spatial-Θ-Iterative Procedure for Outlier Detection (Spatial-Θ-IPOD), which utilizes a mean-shift vector to identify outliers within the SEM. Our method enables an effective detection of spatial outliers while also providing robust coefficient estimates. To assess the performance of our approach, we conducted extensive simulations and applied it to a real-world empirical study using life expectancy data from multiple countries. RESULTS: Simulation results showed that the masking and JD (Joint Detection) indicators of our Spatial-Θ-IPOD method outperformed several commonly used methods, even in high-dimensional scenarios, demonstrating stable performance. Conversely, the Θ-IPOD method proved to be ineffective in detecting outliers when spatial correlation was present. Moreover, our model successfully provided reliable coefficient estimation alongside outlier detection. The proposed method consistently outperformed other models (both robust and non-robust) in most cases. In the empirical study, our proposed model successfully detected outliers and provided valuable insights in the modeling process. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed Spatial-Θ-IPOD offers an effective solution for detecting spatial outliers for SEM while providing robust coefficient estimates. Notably, our approach showcases its relative superiority even in the presence of high leverage points. By successfully identifying outliers, our method enhances the overall understanding of the data and provides valuable insights for further analysis.

Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Background: Healthy life expectancy (HLE) projections are required for optimising social and health service management in the future. Existing studies on the topic were usually conducted by selecting a single model for analysis. We thus aimed to use an ensembled model to project the future HLE for 202 countries/region. Methods: We obtained data on age-sex-specific HLE and the sociodemographic index (SDI) level of 202 countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and used a probabilistic Bayesian model comprised of 21 forecasting models to predict their HLE in 2030. Results: In general, HLE is projected to increase in all 202 countries, with the least probability of 82.4% for women and 81.0% for men. Most of the countries with the lowest projected HLE would be located in Africa. Women in Singapore have the highest projected HLE in 2030, with a 94.5% probability of higher than 75.2 years, which is the highest HLE in 2019 across countries. Maldives, Kuwait, and China are projected to have a probability of 49.3%, 41.2% and 31.6% to be the new entries of the top ten countries with the highest HLE for females compared with 2019. Men in Singapore are projected to have the highest HLE at birth in 2030, with a 93.4% probability of higher than 75.2 years. Peru and Maldives have a probability of 48.7% and 35.3% being new top ten countries in male's HLE. The female advantage in HLE will shrink by 2030 in 117 countries, especially in most of the high SDI and European countries. Conclusions: HLE will likely continue to increase in most countries and regions worldwide in the future. More attention needs to be paid to combatting obesity, chronic diseases, and specific infectious diseases, especially in African and some Pacific Island countries. Although gender gaps may not be fully bridged, HLE could partially mitigate and even eliminate them through economic development and improvements in health care.

Explainable Machine Learning with Pairwise Interactions for Predicting Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Utilizing Multi-Modalities Data.

BACKGROUND: Predicting cognition decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial for identifying high-risk individuals and implementing effective management. To improve predicting MCI-to-AD conversion, it is necessary to consider various factors using explainable machine learning (XAI) models which provide interpretability while maintaining predictive accuracy. This study used the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) model with multimodal features to predict the conversion of MCI to AD during different follow-up periods while providing interpretability. METHODS: This retrospective case-control study is conducted with data obtained from the ADNI database, with records of 1042 MCI patients from 2006 to 2022 included. The exposures included in this study were MRI biomarkers, cognitive scores, demographics, and clinical features. The main outcome was AD conversion from aMCI during follow-up. The EBM model was utilized to predict aMCI converting to AD based on three feature combinations, obtaining interpretability while ensuring accuracy. Meanwhile, the interaction effect was considered in the model. The three feature combinations were compared in different follow-up periods with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC-ROC. The global and local explanations are displayed by importance ranking and feature interpretability plots. RESULTS: The five-years prediction accuracy reached 85% (AUC = 0.92) using both cognitive scores and MRI markers. Apart from accuracies, we obtained features' importance in different follow-up periods. In early stage of AD, the MRI markers play a major role, while for middle-term, the cognitive scores are more important. Feature risk scoring plots demonstrated insightful nonlinear interactive associations between selected factors and outcome. In one-year prediction, lower right inferior temporal volume (<9000) is significantly associated with AD conversion. For two-year prediction, low left inferior temporal thickness (<2) is most critical. For three-year prediction, higher FAQ scores (>4) is the most important. During four-year prediction, APOE4 is the most critical. For five-year prediction, lower right entorhinal volume (<1000) is the most critical feature. CONCLUSIONS: The established glass-box model EBMs with multimodal features demonstrated a superior ability with detailed interpretability in predicting AD conversion from MCI. Multi features with significant importance were identified. Further study may be of significance to determine whether the established prediction tool would improve clinical management for AD patients.

Association between Dietary Patterns and the Risk of Hyperemesis Gravidarum.

(1) Background: Although studies have suggested that dietary interventions may have potential benefits over conventional medical treatments, research on the association between dietary patterns and hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) in pregnant women is scarce. (2) Methods: To explore the relationship between dietary patterns and the risk of HG, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Xi'an, China from April 2021 to September 2022. Dietary intake was assessed by a semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire, and then factor analysis was used to derive dietary patterns. HG was defined as persistent and severe nausea and vomiting with weight loss ≥ 5%, pregnancy-unique quantification of emesis (PUQE) score ≥ 13, or hospitalization due to vomiting. Logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs and 95% CIs for HG according to dietary pattern scores. Stratified analyses and tests for interaction were performed by potential confounders. (3) Results: Of the 3122 pregnant women enrolled, 2515 individuals (mean age: 31.2 ± 3.4 years) were included in the final analysis. In total, 226 (8.9%) pregnant women were identified as having HG. Five dietary patterns were identified. After adjusting for covariates, the highest quartile of the "fish, shrimp and meat" and "egg, milk and water drinking" patterns was associated with a 37% and 58% lower risk of HG compared with the lowest quartile, respectively (p-trend < 0.05). Conversely, the highest quartile of the "beverage" pattern was associated with a 64% higher risk of HG compared with the lowest quartile (p-trend = 0.02). Furthermore, significant interactions were observed between the "egg, milk and water drinking" pattern and parity, employment status and nutritional supplement use (p-interaction < 0.05). (4) Conclusions: A diet rich in eggs, milk, seafood and unprocessed poultry and animal meat may be a protective factor against HG, while a diet high in beverages may be detrimental to HG. These associations may vary by parity, employment status and nutritional supplement use.

Geographical specific association between lifestyles and multimorbidity among adults in China.

The relationship between lifestyles and multimorbidity is well established, but previous studies have often neglected the role of spatial heterogeneity. Thus, this study is the first to explore this association in Chinese adults from a spatial perspective using a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model and describe the geographical characteristics across different regions. According to 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database, a total of 7101 subjects were finally included, with 124 prefecture-level administrative regions in China. Non-spatial and GWLR model were used for analysis, and gender stratification analysis was also performed. Data were visualized through ArcGIS 10.7. The results showed that a total prevalence of approximately 5.13% of multimorbidity, and among participants with multimorbidity, the separate prevalence of hypertension, diabetes or high blood sugar, heart disease, and stroke were 4.45%, 2.32%, 3.02%, and 1.41%, respectively. The GWLR model indicated that current (OR: 1.202-1.220) and former smokers (OR: 1.168-1.206) may be important risk factors for multimorbidity in adults, especially in north and west among male. Past drinkers (OR: 1.233-1.240), especially in eastern China, contribute to the development of the multimorbidity in men but not in women. Vigorous-intensity activities (OR: 0.761-0.799) were negatively associated with multimorbidity in the west, with no gender difference. Depression (OR: 1.266-1.293) appeared to increase the risk for multimorbidity, with the weakest effects in central China and no gender difference. There was an interaction between light activities and gender (P = 0.024). The prevalence of multimorbidity differed across various areas of the province. The role of geographical variations in lifestyles and multimorbidity may provide valuable information for developing site-specific intervention strategies.

Age-dependent Changes in Skeletal Muscle Mass and Visceral Fat Area in a Chinese Population.

OBJECTIVE: The present study was conducted to demonstrate the age-dependent changes in skeletal muscle mass and visceral fat area in a population of Chinese adults aged 30-92 years old. METHODS: A total of 6669 healthy Chinese men and 4494 healthy Chinese women aged 30-92 years old were assessed for their skeletal muscle mass and visceral fat area. RESULTS: The results showed age-dependent decreases in the total skeletal muscle mass indexes in both men and women aged 40-92 years old as well as age-dependent increases in the visceral fat area in men aged 30-92 years old and in women aged 30-80 years old. Multivariate regression models showed that the total skeletal muscle mass index was positively associated with the body mass index and negatively associated with the age and visceral fat area in both sexes. CONCLUSION: The loss of skeletal muscle mass becomes obvious at approximately 50 years of age, and the visceral fat area commences to increase at approximately 40 years of age in this Chinese population.

Effects of dietary fibers or probiotics on functional constipation symptoms and roles of gut microbiota: a double-blinded randomized placebo trial.

Dietary fibers/probiotics may relieve constipation via optimizing gut microbiome, yet with limited trial-based evidences. We aimed to evaluate the effects of formulas with dietary fibers or probiotics on functional constipation symptoms, and to identify modulations of gut microbiota of relevance. We conducted a 4-week double-blinded randomized placebo-controlled trial in 250 adults with functional constipation. Intervention: A: polydextrose; B: psyllium husk; C: wheat bran + psyllium husk; D: Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis HN019 + Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus HN001; Placebo: maltodextrin. Oligosaccharides were also included in group A to D. 16S rRNA sequencing was used to assess the gut microbiota at weeks 0, 2, and 4. A total of 242 participants completed the study. No time-by-group effect was observed for bowel movement frequency (BMF), Bristol stool scale score (BSS), and degree of defecation straining (DDS), while BSS showed mean increases of 0.95-1.05 in group A to D (all P < 0.05), but not significantly changed in placebo (P = 0.170), and 4-week change of BSS showed similarly superior effects of the interventions as compared placebo. Group D showed a marginal reduction in plasma 5-hydroxytryptamine. Group A resulted in a higher Bifidobacterium abundance than placebo at week 2 and 4. Fourteen genera showed intervention-specific increasing or decreasing trends continuously, among which Anaerostipes showed increasing trends in groups B and C, associated with BMF increase. Random forest models identified specific baseline microbial genera panels predicting intervention responders. In conclusion, we found that the dietary fibers or probiotics may relieve hard stool, with intervention-specific changes in gut microbiota relevant to constipation relief. Baseline gut microbiota may predispose the intervention responsiveness. ClincialTrials.gov number, NCT04667884.

What is the context?Supplementation of dietary fibers, such as psyllium husk or wheat bran (10 ~ 15 g/day) may relieve constipation symptoms, but bloating and flatulence are major concerns on a high fiber intake.Functional constipation patients had alternated gut microbiota profiles, while meta-analysis suggested that multispecies probiotics may increase bowel movement frequency and relieve hard stool in functional constipation.Dietary fibers or probiotics may lead to before-after changes of gut microbiota in patients with functional constipation, but time-series continued changes of gut microbiota during the intervention are unknown.Elevation of 5-hydroxytryptamine synthesis in enterochromaffin cells may affect bowel movement. And the elevated plasma 5-hydroxytryptamine was observed in functional constipation patients.What is new? Daily supplement of three prebiotic formulas with dietary fibers (polydextrose, psyllium husk, wheat bran, together with oligosaccharides), or a probiotic formula with Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis HN019 + Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus HN001 effectively relieved hard stool in functional constipation patients after 4 weeks intervention.We identified continued increasing or decreasing gut microbial genera over the intervention. Dietary fiber ­ gut microbiota (Anaerostipes)­constipation relieve (bowel movement frequency) evidence axis was identified in this human trial.Probiotic supplementation marginally reduced plasma 5-hydroxytryptamine, possibly associated with changes in BMF-related gut microbial genera.Intervention-specific baseline gut microbiota well predicted the responsiveness of constipation symptom relief.What is the impact? We provided references for the dosage and duration of dietary fiber/probiotics recommendations for adults with functional constipation, and advanced the microbial genera evidences of the fibers/probiotics-microbiota-laxation theory in humans.

Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juices and risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and mortality: A meta-analysis.

Introduction: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake is associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. However, evidence regarding associations of artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) and fruit juices with cardiometabolic diseases is mixed. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between the SSB, ASB and fruit juice consumption with the incidence of cardiometabolic conditions and mortality. Methods: Relevant prospective studies were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library until December 2022 without language restrictions. The pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for the association of SSBs, ASBs, and fruit juices with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality by using random-effect models. Results: A total of 72 articles were included in this meta-analysis study. Significantly positive associations were observed between the consumption of individual beverages and T2D risk (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.38 for SSBs; RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.56 for ASBs; and RR:0.98; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.03 for fruit juices). Moreover, our findings showed that intakes of SSBs and ASBs were significantly associated with risk of hypertension, stroke, and all-cause mortality (RR ranging from 1.08 to 1.54; all p < 0.05). A dose-response meta-analysis showed monotonic associations between SSB intake and hypertension, T2D, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and mortality, and the linear association was only significant between ASB consumption and hypertension risk. Higher SSB and ASB consumptions were associated with a greater risk of developing cardiometabolic diseases and mortality. Fruit juice intake was associated with a higher risk of T2D. Conclusion: Therefore, our findings suggest that neither ASBs nor fruit juices could be considered as healthier beverages alternative to SSBs for achieving improved health.Systematic Review Registration: [PROSPERO], identifier [No. CRD42022307003].

Longitudinal associations between specific types/amounts social contact and cognitive function among middle-aged and elderly Chinese: A causal inference and longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Social contact has demonstrated associations with cognitive function, while the literature on the effect of specific social relationship subdomains on cognitive function is limited. This study aimed to examine the causal effects of specific types/amounts of social contact on cognitive function among middle-aged and elderly Chinese. METHODS: A total of 38,883 middle-aged and elderly adults from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were involved. Social contact in this study included interaction with families, taking care of grandchildren, interaction with friends, and participation in three types of social activities. We performed the linear mixed-effects model analysis with propensity score approach and the longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood-based estimation analysis after adjusting for potential covariates and confounders. RESULTS: Interaction with families, caring for grandchildren, interaction with friends and participation in social activities were all associated with cognitive z-scores. Participants who interacted with families "2-3 times a week" and "once a week" versus "almost every day" had higher cognitive z-scores. Those who interacted with friends and participated in social activities "almost every week" versus "almost daily" had higher cognitive z-scores. LIMITATIONS: The assessment of cognition was biased against people with poor education due to elements of language and mathematical testing, and against those with visual impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Social contact was associated with better cognitive function among middle-aged and elderly Chinese. Social contact "1-3 times a week" was optimal for cognitive function. More social contact in middle-aged and elderly Chinese led to less cognitive decline in later life than in their inactive peers.

Instrumental variable-based high-dimensional mediation analysis with unmeasured confounders for survival data in the observational epigenetic study.

Background: High dimensional mediation analysis is frequently conducted to explore the role of epigenetic modifiers between exposure and health outcome. However, the issue of high dimensional mediation analysis with unmeasured confounders for survival analysis in observational study has not been well solved. Methods: In this study, we proposed an instrumental variable based approach for high dimensional mediation analysis with unmeasured confounders in survival analysis for epigenetic study. We used the Sobel's test, the Joint test, and the Bootstrap method to test the mediation effect. A comprehensive simulation study was conducted to decide the best test strategy. An empirical study based on DNA methylation data of lung cancer patients was conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Results: Simulation study suggested that the proposed method performed well in the identifying mediating factors. The estimation of the mediation effect by the proposed approach is also reliable with less bias compared with the classical approach. In the empirical study, we identified two DNA methylation signatures including cg21926276 and cg26387355 with a mediation effect of 0.226 (95%CI: 0.108-0.344) and 0.158 (95%CI: 0.065-0.251) between smoking and lung cancer using the proposed approach. Conclusion: The proposed method obtained good performance in simulation and empirical studies, it could be an effective statistical tool for high dimensional mediation analysis.

Predicting Six-Month Re-Admission Risk in Heart Failure Patients Using Multiple Machine Learning Methods: A Study Based on the Chinese Heart Failure Population Database.

Since most patients with heart failure are re-admitted to the hospital, accurately identifying the risk of re-admission of patients with heart failure is important for clinical decision making and management. This study plans to develop an interpretable predictive model based on a Chinese population for predicting six-month re-admission rates in heart failure patients. Research data were obtained from the PhysioNet portal. To ensure robustness, we used three approaches for variable selection. Six different machine learning models were estimated based on selected variables. The ROC curve, prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the performance of the established models. In addition, we visualized the optimized model with a nomogram. In all, 2002 patients with heart failure were included in this study. Of these, 773 patients experienced re-admission and a six-month re-admission incidence of 38.61%. Based on evaluation metrics, the logistic regression model performed best in the validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.634 (95%CI: 0.599-0.646) and an accuracy of 0.652. A nomogram was also generated. The established prediction model has good discrimination ability in predicting. Our findings are helpful and could provide useful information for the allocation of healthcare resources and for improving the quality of survival of heart failure patients.

Associations between trajectories of cardiovascular risk factor change and cognitive impairment in Chinese elderly: A nationwide cohort study.

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between long-term trajectories of changes in cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and the risk of cognitive impairment among Chinese adults over 60 years old. Methods: Data were obtained from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2005-2018. Cognitive function was evaluated longitudinally through the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (C-MMSE), and cognitive impairment (C-MMSE ≤23) was used as the main outcome variable. The cardiovascular risk factors, including systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), pulse pressure (PP), and body mass index (BMI), were continuously measured in the follow-up duration. The patterns of trajectories of changes in CVRFs were derived from the latent growth mixture model (LGMM). The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the cognitive impairment hazard ratio (HR) across different CVRF trajectories. Results: A total of 5,164 participants aged ≥60 years with normal cognitive function at baseline were included in the study. After a median follow-up of 8 years, 2,071 participants (40.1%) developed cognitive impairment (C-MMSE ≤ 23). The four-class trajectories of SBP and BMI were obtained by means of LGMM, and the trajectories of DBP, MAP, and PP were grouped into a three-class subgroup. In the final adjusted Cox model, the lowered SBP [adjusted HR (aHR): 1.59; 95% CI: 1.17-2.16], lowered PP (aHR: 2.64; 95% CI: 1.66-4.19), and progressively obese (aHR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.02-1.62) and stable slim (aHR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.02-1.25) were associated with the higher risk of cognitive impairment. Low stable DBP (aHR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.66-0.96) and elevated PP (aHR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63-0.92) decreased the risk for cognitive impairment among participants. Conclusion: Lowered SBP, lowered PP, progressive obesity, and stable slim increased the risk for cognitive impairment in the Chinese elderly. Low stable DBP and elevated PP were protective against cognitive impairment, but more DBP lowering and ≥25 mmHg growth in PP contributed to a higher risk of cognitive impairment. The findings have important implications for preventing cognitive impairment in elder adults based on the long-term trajectories of changes in CVRFs.

Dietary vitamins, carotenoids and their sources in relation to age-related macular degeneration risk in China: a population-based case-control study.

Mechanistic studies have suggested that antioxidants have beneficial effects on age-related macular degeneration (AMD). This study aimed to investigate the association between the types and sources of dietary vitamin and carotenoid intakes and AMD risk in China. A matched case-control study of 260 AMD cases and 260 matched controls was performed. The participants were interviewed for dietary information and potential confounders, and comprehensive ophthalmic examinations were performed. Conditional logistic models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of specific vitamins and carotenoids and their main sources. When comparing the extreme quartiles, the ORs (95 % CI) were 0·30 (0·10, 0·88) for lutein and 0·28 (0·11, 0·74) for ß-cryptoxanthin. The associations for other dietary vitamin and carotenoid intakes were generally weaker and non-significant. Higher intakes of spinach and egg, which are important sources of lutein, were associated with a reduced odds of AMD. ORs (95% CIs) comparing extreme categories were 0·42 (0·20, 0·88) for spinach and 0·52 (95% CI: 0·27, 0·98) for egg. Participants who were in the highest category of both egg intake and spinach intake had a much greater reduced odds of having AMD (OR: 0·23; 95% CI: 0·08, 0·71) than those in the lowest category of egg intake and spinach intake. In conclusion, a higher intake of lutein and lutein-rich foods was associated with a significantly decreased odds of AMD. These findings provide further evidence of the benefits of lutein and lutein-rich foods in the prevention of AMD.

Association of rate pressure product trajectories at an early age with left ventricular hypertrophy in midlife: a prospective cohort study.

The joint effect of blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) on cardiovascular disease is unclear. Rate pressure product (RPP), the product of systolic BP and HR, is assessed in this study. This study aimed to determine the longitudinal patterns of RPP from childhood to adulthood and to explore the relationship between RPP trajectories in early life and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in midlife. We included individuals with 3 or more RPP values from 7 visits over a 30-year follow-up period in the Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Study cohort to fit trajectory groups and performed logistic regression to evaluate the relative risk of developing LVH. Three discrete trajectories in RPP were identified among 2412 participants assessed from childhood to middle-aged adulthood, which were tagged as "low stable," "moderate stable," and "moderate increasing". A higher waist-to-hip ratio, smoking, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia were associated with increased RPP trajectories. The Cornell voltage product was positively correlated with RPP in 2017 and was higher in the moderate-stable and moderate-increasing groups than in the low-stable group in RPP trajectories. Compared with the low-stable group, the ORs of LVH were 1.65 (1.13, 2.92) for the moderate-stable and 3.56 (2.26, 5.44) for the moderate-increasing group. Subjects with moderate-stable and moderate-increasing trajectories showed higher probabilities of LVH at an elderly age than those in the low stable trajectory group even after adjusting for multiple cardiovascular risk factors. RPP trajectories are identifiable from childhood and are associated with LVH in midlife. Monitoring RPP trajectories from early life may be an effective approach to predict cardiovascular health status later in life.

Stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake in China and South Korea: An age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis.

The high intake of red meat is well recognized as a major health concern worldwide. It has been recognized as a risk factor for several non-communicable chronic diseases, including stroke. However, previously published studies have not performed a comprehensive analysis of the long-time trend of stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake in China and South Korea, two countries with similar dietary patterns and changing trends. Therefore, this study aimed to reveal the influence of age, time period, and birth cohort on long-term trends of stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake and relative gender differences in China and South Korea. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effect of age, time period, and birth cohort. The average and annual percent changes were estimated using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results indicated that the overall attributable age-standardized mortality rates of stroke in China decreased by 1.0% (P < 0.05) for female and 0.1% (P > 0.05) for male individuals, compared with a decrease of 4.9% for female and 3.7% for male individuals in South Korea (both P < 0.05). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed that the attributable stroke mortality decreased along with the time period, and increased along with age. Significant gender differences were observed, male individuals in both countries were at higher risk than their female counterparts, especially in China. Joinpoint analysis suggested that the attributable stroke mortality for both genders in South Korea and female individuals in China showed a decreasing trend, while it is stable for male individuals in China. Although prominent reductions were observed during the past decades, the attributable stroke mortality risk in China and South Korea is still high. Our findings indicate that controlling the intake of red meat may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce stroke mortality risk and the corresponding disease burden, especially for Chinese male individuals.

The long-term trend of Parkinson's disease incidence and mortality in China and a Bayesian projection from 2020 to 2030.

Background: Parkinson's disease is a disabling degenerative disease of the central nervous system that occurs mainly in elderly people. The changes in the incidence and mortality of Parkinson's disease at the national level in China over the past three decades have not been fully explored. Methods: Research data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The trends of crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by gender of Parkinson's disease in China were analyzed with the age-period-cohort model and the Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of Parkinson's disease were estimated. The gender- and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of Parkinson's disease from 2020 to 2030 were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model with integrated nested Laplace approximations. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the annual percentage change of the age-standardized incidence rate was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.7%-0.8%) for males and 0.2% (95% CI, 0.2-0.2%) for females. And the age-standardized mortality rate for males was 2.9% (95% CI: 2.6%-3.2%) and 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5%-2.1%) for females. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested that the risk and burden of Parkinson's disease continued to increase for the last several decades. Projection analysis suggested that the overall Parkinson's disease incidence will continue to increase for the next decades. It was projected that China would have 4.787 million Parkinson's patients by the year 2030, however, the mortality of Parkinson's disease for both genders in China may keep decreasing. Conclusion: Though the mortality risk may decrease, Parkinson's disease continues to become more common for both genders in China, especially in the senior-aged population. The burden associated with Parkinson's disease would continue to grow. Urgent interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of Parkinson's disease in China.

The association between social engagement and depressive symptoms in middle-aged and elderly Chinese: A longitudinal subgroup identification analysis under causal inference frame.

Background: Studies have suggested that there is a significant association between social engagement and depression symptoms. However, this association may differ in people with different features such as different sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions. Methods: Research data were obtained from the CHARLS database. The causal inference was performed with the propensity score. We used the linear mixed-effects model tree algorithm under the causal inference frame for subgroup identification analysis. Results: We included 13,521 participants, and the median follow-up time is 4 years. Under the casual inference frame, the association between social engagement and depression symptoms is confirmed for all included individuals (OR = 0.957, P = 0.016; 95%CI: 0.923-0.992). Using the linear mixed-effects model tree, we found two subgroups, including middle-aged and elderly residents who live in rural areas with <6 h of sleep and those living in urban areas, could benefit more from social engagement. After using the propensity score method, all the two subgroups selected are statistically significant (P = 0.007; P = 0.013) and have a larger effect size (OR = 0.897, 95%CI: 0.830-0.971; OR = 0.916, 95%CI: 0.854-0.981) than the whole participants. As for sex difference, this associations are statistically significant in male (OR: 0.935, P = 0.011, 95%CI: 0.888-0.985) but not in female (OR: 0.979, P = 0.399, 95%CI: 0.931-1.029). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that social engagement may reduce the risks of depressive symptoms among all individuals. The identified subgroups of middle-aged and elderly residents who live in rural areas with <6 h of sleep and those who live in urban areas may benefit more from the social engagement than the whole participants.

Effects of potential risk factors on the development of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and mortality among the elders in China.

Objectives: To examine the impact of demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors on the development of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and mortality in Chinese elders. Methods: Data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) 2002-2018 was used in the study. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more cardiometabolic disorders, such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), heart disease, or stroke. Cox regression model and multi-state Markov model were developed to evaluate the association of the study factors with the progression of cardiometabolic conditions and mortality. The outcomes included three states (first cardiometabolic disease, cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and all-cause mortality) and five possible transitions among the three states. Results: Of the 13,933 eligible individuals, 7,917 (56.8%) were female, and 9,540 (68.50%) were over 80 years old. 2,766 (19.9%) participants had their first cardiometabolic disease, 975 (7.0%) participants suffered from cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and 9,365 (67.2%) participants died. The progression to cardiometabolic multimorbidity was positively associated with being female (HR = 1.42; 95%CI, 1.10 - 1.85), living in the city (HR = 1.41; 95%CI, 1.04 - 1.93), overweight (HR = 1.43; 95%CI, 1.08 - 1.90), and obesity (HR = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.03 - 2.98). A higher risk for the first cardiometabolic disease was associated with being female (HR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 - 1.39), higher socioeconomic status (SES, HR = 1.17; 95%CI, 1.07 - 1.28), lack of regular physical activity (HR = 1.13; 95%CI, 1.04 - 1.23), smoking (HR = 1.20; 95%CI, 1.08 - 1.33), ≤ 5 h sleep time (HR = 1.15; 95%CI, 1.02 - 1.30), overweight (HR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.32 - 1.66), and obesity (HR = 1.34; 95%CI, 1.06 - 1.69). It also should be noted that not in marriage, lower SES and unhealthy behavioral patterns were risk factors for mortality. Conclusion: This study emphasized the importance of lifestyle and SES in tackling the development of cardiometabolic conditions among Chinese elders and provided a reference for policy-makers to develop a tailored stage-specific intervention strategy.

Long-Time Trend of Colorectal Cancer Mortality Attributable to High Processed Meat Intake in China and a Bayesian Projection from 2020 to 2030: A Model-Based Study.

Colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer worldwide. Processed meat was known to be positively associated with a higher risk of gastrointestinal cancer. This study focused on the long-time trends of colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake in China from 1990 to 2019 and the projection for the next decade based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used an age-period-cohort model to fit the long-time trend. The joinpoint model was conducted to estimate the average and annual change of the attributable mortality. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the crude attributable mortality from 2020 to 2030. An upward trend in colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake was observed for both sexes in China from 1990 to 2019, with an overall net drift of 4.009% for males and 2.491% for females per year. Projection analysis suggested that the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality would still be high. Our findings suggested that colorectal cancer death attributable to high processed meat intake is still high in China, and elderly males were at higher risk. Gradually decreasing the intake of processed meat could be an effective way to reduce colorectal cancer mortality.

Saturated fatty acid biomarkers and risk of cardiometabolic diseases: A meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Background and aims: Evidence regarding associations of circulating saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with chronic diseases is mixed. The objective of this study was to determine the associations between total or individual SFA biomarkers and the risk of cardiometabolic diseases. Methods: Four electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2022. Three investigators independently assessed for inclusion and extracted data. Random-effects or fixed-effects models was used to estimate the pooled relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of total or individual SFA biomarkers, including even-chain SFAs (e.g., 14:0, myristic acid; 16:0, palmitic acid; 18:0, stearic acid), odd-chain SFAs (e.g., 15:0, pentadecanoic acid; 17:0, margaric acid) and very-long-chain SFAs (VLCSFAs; e.g., 20:0, arachidic acid; 22:0, behenic acid; 24:0, lignoceric acid), with risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease [CVD; coronary heart disease (CHD) inclusive of stroke], CHD and stroke. Results: A total of 49 prospective studies reported in 45 articles were included. Higher concentration of circulating total SFAs was associated with an increasing risk of cardiometabolic diseases, the risk increased significantly by 50% for CVD (95%CI:1.31-1.71), 63% for CHD (95%CI:1.38-1.94), 38% for stroke (95%CI:1.05-1.82), respectively. Similarly, levels of even-chain SFAs were positively associated with higher risk of chronic diseases, with RRs ranging from 1.15 to 1.43. In contrast, the risk of cardiometabolic diseases was reduced with increasing odd-chain SFA levels, with RRs ranging from 0.62 to 0.91. A higher level of VLCSFAs corresponded to 19% reduction in CVD. Further dose-response analysis indicated that each 50% increment in percentage of total SFAs in circulating was associated with an 8% higher risk of T2D (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.02-1.14) and trends toward higher risk of CVD (RR: 1.15, 95%CI: 0.98-1.34). Inverse linear relationships were observed between 17:0 biomarker and T2D or CVD risk. Conclusion: Our findings support the current recommendations of reducing intake of saturated fat as part of healthy dietary patterns. Further studies are needed to confirm our findings on these SFAs in relation to cardiometabolic outcomes and to elucidate underlying mechanisms. Systematic review registration: [https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022329182], identifier [CRD42022329182].